Governance Under Fire: Leveraging Geopolitical Intelligence to Manage the Crisis

Dr. Ramon B. Segismundo, FICD

Board Trustee and Vice Chair,

Thought Leadership Committee

Institute of Corporate Directors

Geopolitical Shocks and the New Risk Reality

Before the US-Israel-Iran conflict erupted at the end of February 2026, few would have imagined that a narrow shipping corridor of only 21 kilometers wide at its narrowest point could trigger a national energy emergency in the Philippines, located 7,500 kilometers away.

It is equally striking that even recent threats by the Houthis in Yemen to attack the Bab el- Mandeb Strait, the gateway to the Suez Canal, have been enough to disrupt and potentially intensify one of the most severe global economic shocks in modern history.

These developments underscore a growing reality: governance is now under fire. This is not only in the Philippines, but across ASEAN, Asia, and the wider global system.

This raises a critical question: How should Philippine corporations prepare for geopolitical shocks and manage the resulting poly-crisis: spanning energy security, cost of living pressures, food supply constraints, depressed demand, and rising inflation?

Governance Under Fire

Less than four weeks after the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, the Institute of Corporate Directors convened a forum titled “Governance Under Fire: Preparing Philippine Corporations for Geopolitical Shocks” on March 28, from 11:00 AM to 2:00 PM, at Ascott BGC. The event gathered close to 100 corporate leaders.

The main speaker was Richard Heydarian, a global political scientist, public intellectual, and journalist. He has written extensively for leading global publications including The New York Times, Foreign Affairs, and The Guardian, and has appeared on major international networks such as ABC Australia, Al Jazeera, BBC, Bloomberg, CNN International, and CNBC. He has been interviewed by global figures such as Christiane Amanpour and Fareed Zakaria, and has engaged with leaders including former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He has also exchanged views with the late US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.

Despite his Persian-sounding name, he is a proud Ilocano from Baguio City.

The panel was equally strong, featuring:

• Col. Ray Powell, Director of SeaLight at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation with deep expertise in Indo-Pacific security and intelligence.

• Atty. Pete Maniego, ICD’s resident energy security expert with extensive experience at the intersection of governance, energy, and law.

• Nitin Goil, Singapore-based leadership advisor specializing in organizational transformation during crises and inflection points.

The New World Disorder

Richard Heydarian’s presentation, “New World Disorder: A Roadmap for Geopolitical Survival,” outlined key structural shifts shaping global affairs. He highlighted three key trends:

1. Weaponized Interdependence

Global trade, finance, and technology inter-nation linkages are increasingly used as “chokepoints” for strategic leverage by countries.

2. The Collapse of Superpower Myths

Conflicts such as Russia-Ukraine and US-Israel-Iran demonstrate that no power is invincible. This shift is enabled by asymmetrical warfare, where weaker actors use unconventional and indirect strategies.

3. “Temu Warfare”

The rise of low-cost, high-impact autonomous systems and technologies is lowering the barriers to entry in modern conflict.

From Unipolarity to Fragmentation

Heydarian concluded that geopolitics is moving away from a single dominant world order toward a fragmented, multi-actor system characterized by:

1. A Multiplex World.

Multiple overlapping centers of power will emerge, resembling a “cinema multiplex” with several concurrent theaters of influence rather than a single dominant screen.

2. Minilateralism

Small, purpose-driven coalitions will increasingly replace large multilateral institutions. This creates new opportunities for regional groupings such as ASEAN.

3. The Rise of Middle Powers

Countries that are not superpowers but still possess meaningful economic, diplomatic, or military influence will act as bridges, brokers, or stabilizers. Recent examples include Pakistan’s role in facilitating discussions involving Iran and the United States.

Future scenarios discussed included the Asian Century, declining US influence, and the emergence of a more explicitly multipolar world.

Leveraging Geopolitical Intelligence

Geopolitical intelligence can be leveraged both at the board and senior executive levels.

In the forum as panel moderator, I shared three key emerging disciplines at the board level:

1. Strategic Optionality

In stable environments, efficiency dominates decision-making. In volatile conditions, optionality becomes more important. Boards and executives should maintain multiple viable pathways to preserve flexibility as conditions evolve.

2. Board Agility

Boards must move from periodic oversight to active strategic engagement. Agile boards adapt decisions and governance practices in real time through:

• Short, focused meetings

• Real-time dashboards

• Scenario planning

• Pre-defined trigger points

• Empowered management operating within clear guardrails

3. Governance Excellence Under Pressure

This integrates optionality and agility while maintaining ethical willpower and integrity. It emphasizes decisive yet responsible action. The key is protecting short-term stability while shaping long-term outcomes, without compromising ethics, transparency, or governance standards.

Post event, I reflected that there are at least three ways senior executives can operationalize geopolitical intelligence at a personal level:

1. Translate intelligence into high quality decisions

Avoid information overload and learn how to filter out the noise. Focus only on signals relevant to decision-making variables. Predefine how specific signals trigger specific actions under different scenarios.

2. Act earlier than others

Early action preserves optionality. In uncertainty, it is often better to be roughly right early than precisely right too late.

3. Stay adaptive

Adapt tactics while remaining anchored to core purpose and values. Build feedback loops and structured response mechanisms that allow for rapid adjustment without losing strategic alignment.

Crisis Management in a Volatile Environment

Various scenarios for the Philippines over the next six to twelve months continue to be assessed as this article is written. Early indicators suggest rising risks of stagflation characterized by low demand and high inflation alongside pressures across supply chains, food security, transport, and cost of living. These are compounded by ongoing energy constraints and the lingering effects of the flood control scandal.

In this environment, boards and senior executives are best guided by a simple principle: prepare for the worst, while hoping for the best.

The practical response lies in a relevant, continuously updated, and dynamic crisis management framework anchored on geopolitical intelligence.

At its core, crisis management involves:

• Understanding the nature and types of current and emerging crises

• Identifying early warning signals

• Applying structured crisis frameworks and decision tools

• Developing agile yet disciplined response plans

• Strengthening leadership, governance, and communications during periods of disruption

Closing Reflection

In an era defined by geopolitical volatility, success will depend on the ability to convert geopolitical intelligence into high-quality decisions, act earlier than competitors, and remain adaptive in execution.

As a guiding principle, we return to a simple imperative:

Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best.